Islamabad– Security experts agree that the offensive in restive Waziristan, home to well-trained militants and warrior tribesmen, will be much longer and bloodier for the army compared to its easy-ride operation in the Swat valley. "Swat and Waziristan are two totally different areas," Major General Shafiq Ahmed, a former commanding officer of the region and a senior security analyst, told IslamOnline.
"Their people, conditions and atmosphere. Everything is different. I am afraid it won’t be an easy task for the army."
The army has unleashed a much-anticipated offensive against Waziristan, the heartland of militants fighting under the banner of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella of various local groups in the region.
Pakistan's Future (Special Page)
Pakistan’s Troubled Waziristan (Flash)
It sent 30,000 troops to fight an estimated 10,000 Taliban fighters in Waziristan, a tribal region known for braving all military conquests, including the British Empire. The army hopes to wind up the operation within eight weeks, though analysts believe the battle would take much longer.
"This will be a much more difficult task," Rahimullah Yusufzai, a security analyst and an expert on Afghan affairs, told IOL.
The military troops are already facing fierce resistance from Taliban's die-hard militants in the mountainous region which borders northeastern Afghanistan.
Armed with rockets and guns, Taliban fighters stormed a military check post in Bajaur in a surprise Sunday night-time assault, killing four soldiers.
The fatalities brought to 11 the number of troops killed in the deadliest 24 hours for the military since unleashing the offensive less than two weeks ago.
Yusufzai insists that any comparison with the army's recent successful offensive against local Taliban in Swat is ungrounded.
"Taliban had got control of some parts of Swat, which was not a big area, just a year ago. But here, Taliban have been settling her for a long time and the area they control is much bigger than they held in Swat."
The army was able to seize control and restore peace to the beautiful valley of Swat shortly after launching its offensive in May.
Challenges
Experts believe the army will be facing a series of major challenges during its war in South Waziristan. "The army has no proper intelligence and information about the area," asserts Yusufzai, the security analyst.
"No doubt, they have jets, bombs and tanks. They can bomb and kill the people, but it will cause a collateral damage because the army has no targets there due to lack of intelligence."
He noted that army chief general Ashfaq Pervez Kayani once dubbed Waziristan a black hole.
"Therefore, in my opinion, the army is entering an unknown territory."
Major General Ahmed says the army will not be able to settle in the region just like it did in Swat.
"This is not possible in Waziristan. There is no tribal system in Swat, while this is purely a tribal region," he explained.
"Tribesmen will become the army's enemies if it plans to stay there permanently."
Root Causes
Analysts contend that even if the military was able to crush Taliban in the Waziristan battle, the cancer of militancy will not die.
"The army believes that if it captures the militants’ hideouts and training centers in Waziristan, then they won’t be able to regroup and train would-be suicide bombers," notes Yusufzai.
"I disagree with that. The militants will be spread out and will be more difficult to locate like Al-Qaeda members."
Saleem Safi, an Islamabad-based analyst, agrees.
"No doubt, Waziristan is the headquarters of militants, not only the Taliban, but also Al-Qaeda. But even if this headquarters is destroyed, the problem will remain there."
He believes there is a need for a major change in the state policies with respect to Washington's so-called war on terror.
"Various operations have been carried out in the past and many can be launched in the future, but nothing will happen," Safi contends.
"We have to understand the root cause. It is true that people go to Waziristan for training, but we never think about why and where do they come from?"
He believes militants come from Karachi, Islamabad, Lahore, and other small and big cities.
"Waziristan is only a training ground. If it is dismantled, there will be another training facility because there is no shortage of trainees."
Source: IslamOnline
"Their people, conditions and atmosphere. Everything is different. I am afraid it won’t be an easy task for the army."
The army has unleashed a much-anticipated offensive against Waziristan, the heartland of militants fighting under the banner of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella of various local groups in the region.
Pakistan's Future (Special Page)
Pakistan’s Troubled Waziristan (Flash)
It sent 30,000 troops to fight an estimated 10,000 Taliban fighters in Waziristan, a tribal region known for braving all military conquests, including the British Empire. The army hopes to wind up the operation within eight weeks, though analysts believe the battle would take much longer.
"This will be a much more difficult task," Rahimullah Yusufzai, a security analyst and an expert on Afghan affairs, told IOL.
The military troops are already facing fierce resistance from Taliban's die-hard militants in the mountainous region which borders northeastern Afghanistan.
Armed with rockets and guns, Taliban fighters stormed a military check post in Bajaur in a surprise Sunday night-time assault, killing four soldiers.
The fatalities brought to 11 the number of troops killed in the deadliest 24 hours for the military since unleashing the offensive less than two weeks ago.
Yusufzai insists that any comparison with the army's recent successful offensive against local Taliban in Swat is ungrounded.
"Taliban had got control of some parts of Swat, which was not a big area, just a year ago. But here, Taliban have been settling her for a long time and the area they control is much bigger than they held in Swat."
The army was able to seize control and restore peace to the beautiful valley of Swat shortly after launching its offensive in May.
Challenges
Experts believe the army will be facing a series of major challenges during its war in South Waziristan. "The army has no proper intelligence and information about the area," asserts Yusufzai, the security analyst.
"No doubt, they have jets, bombs and tanks. They can bomb and kill the people, but it will cause a collateral damage because the army has no targets there due to lack of intelligence."
He noted that army chief general Ashfaq Pervez Kayani once dubbed Waziristan a black hole.
"Therefore, in my opinion, the army is entering an unknown territory."
Major General Ahmed says the army will not be able to settle in the region just like it did in Swat.
"This is not possible in Waziristan. There is no tribal system in Swat, while this is purely a tribal region," he explained.
"Tribesmen will become the army's enemies if it plans to stay there permanently."
Root Causes
Analysts contend that even if the military was able to crush Taliban in the Waziristan battle, the cancer of militancy will not die.
"The army believes that if it captures the militants’ hideouts and training centers in Waziristan, then they won’t be able to regroup and train would-be suicide bombers," notes Yusufzai.
"I disagree with that. The militants will be spread out and will be more difficult to locate like Al-Qaeda members."
Saleem Safi, an Islamabad-based analyst, agrees.
"No doubt, Waziristan is the headquarters of militants, not only the Taliban, but also Al-Qaeda. But even if this headquarters is destroyed, the problem will remain there."
He believes there is a need for a major change in the state policies with respect to Washington's so-called war on terror.
"Various operations have been carried out in the past and many can be launched in the future, but nothing will happen," Safi contends.
"We have to understand the root cause. It is true that people go to Waziristan for training, but we never think about why and where do they come from?"
He believes militants come from Karachi, Islamabad, Lahore, and other small and big cities.
"Waziristan is only a training ground. If it is dismantled, there will be another training facility because there is no shortage of trainees."
Source: IslamOnline
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