BAGHDAD – There were no winners and losers in the long battle fought over the new election law and the true winners will be decided through the ballot bozes on Election Day, experts believe.
"In the eyes of the locals, Sunnis were the winners of the political battle," Khalid Jaffer, a political analyst who also works as government’s consultant, told IslamOnline.net.
"But we know that at the end of the process, Shiites will be able to overcome the problem and respond for the majority of seats," he contends.
"And after the polls, even if Sunnis try to boycott their decisions, being in majority and with Kurds support, they will follow with their own calendar without Sunnis interventions."
After weeks of wrangling that led to the postponing of the January elections, lawmakers finally agreed upon a new election law, paving the way for the vote to take place.
Authorities have since declared March 6 as the Election Day.
Elections was first postponed after Vice-President Tarek al-Hashemi, a Sunni, vetoed an earlier draft of the law over failure to give fair representation to Iraqis who fled the country after the 2003 invasion, mostly Sunnis.
The law was passed before midnight on Sunday, December 6, in an extraordinary session with MPs approving an explanatory memorandum to the new elections law and distribution of parliamentary seats.
It increasing the parliament seats to 325 seats, 310 of them will be allocated for the provinces and 15 compensational seats, from which ethnic minorities will receive eight seats and the Kurds three additional seats.
"The new memorandum helps the Sunni interests but wont make a big difference when important decisions have to be made," Aboudy Hayet Majeed, a political analyst and writer, believes.
"If Shiites or Kurds had felt threatened by Hashemi’s veto, they would not have accepted his demands. They know that they are holding the important seats and at the end they will keep being the ones who decide what is better or worse for Iraq."
Election Test
Experts agree that regardless of the compromises made to get the lection law passed and pave the way for the vote to take place; true winners are those who will do better at the ballot boxes.
"Each political group in Iraq will fight to get more representation inside the parliament," Abbas Ibraheem Massad, a political analyst and professor at Baghdad University, told IOL.
"The delay was a response to Sunnis exigencies that alleged they were in disadvantage beside Shiites and Kurds.
"They might see the new resolution as a victory, but the reality comes after elections and when polls are counted with Shiites wining the majority," he asserted.
"Although they (Sunnis) guaranteed more seats to overcome the refugees' problems, it will be hard for them to make final decisions in the government with the main seats and most of the provinces run by Shiite politicians, leaving a gap of responsibility and low support to minorities."
The upcoming election is an important moment for United States because its troop withdrawal plans depend on stability after the polls.
"Sunnis were trying to get more representations by using refugees as an excuse," Kurdish analyst Baraw Serbest told IOL.
"Kurds and Shiites agreed to Hashemi’s request as a way to keep stability and prevent eruption of violence by groups who indirectly support Sunni politicians," he argued.
"I think that it was an understandable decision but we cannot say that someone won because the only time we can have this answer is after polls results are released."
By Afif Sarhan, IOL Correspondent
"In the eyes of the locals, Sunnis were the winners of the political battle," Khalid Jaffer, a political analyst who also works as government’s consultant, told IslamOnline.net.
"But we know that at the end of the process, Shiites will be able to overcome the problem and respond for the majority of seats," he contends.
"And after the polls, even if Sunnis try to boycott their decisions, being in majority and with Kurds support, they will follow with their own calendar without Sunnis interventions."
After weeks of wrangling that led to the postponing of the January elections, lawmakers finally agreed upon a new election law, paving the way for the vote to take place.
Authorities have since declared March 6 as the Election Day.
Elections was first postponed after Vice-President Tarek al-Hashemi, a Sunni, vetoed an earlier draft of the law over failure to give fair representation to Iraqis who fled the country after the 2003 invasion, mostly Sunnis.
The law was passed before midnight on Sunday, December 6, in an extraordinary session with MPs approving an explanatory memorandum to the new elections law and distribution of parliamentary seats.
It increasing the parliament seats to 325 seats, 310 of them will be allocated for the provinces and 15 compensational seats, from which ethnic minorities will receive eight seats and the Kurds three additional seats.
"The new memorandum helps the Sunni interests but wont make a big difference when important decisions have to be made," Aboudy Hayet Majeed, a political analyst and writer, believes.
"If Shiites or Kurds had felt threatened by Hashemi’s veto, they would not have accepted his demands. They know that they are holding the important seats and at the end they will keep being the ones who decide what is better or worse for Iraq."
Election Test
Experts agree that regardless of the compromises made to get the lection law passed and pave the way for the vote to take place; true winners are those who will do better at the ballot boxes.
"Each political group in Iraq will fight to get more representation inside the parliament," Abbas Ibraheem Massad, a political analyst and professor at Baghdad University, told IOL.
"The delay was a response to Sunnis exigencies that alleged they were in disadvantage beside Shiites and Kurds.
"They might see the new resolution as a victory, but the reality comes after elections and when polls are counted with Shiites wining the majority," he asserted.
"Although they (Sunnis) guaranteed more seats to overcome the refugees' problems, it will be hard for them to make final decisions in the government with the main seats and most of the provinces run by Shiite politicians, leaving a gap of responsibility and low support to minorities."
The upcoming election is an important moment for United States because its troop withdrawal plans depend on stability after the polls.
"Sunnis were trying to get more representations by using refugees as an excuse," Kurdish analyst Baraw Serbest told IOL.
"Kurds and Shiites agreed to Hashemi’s request as a way to keep stability and prevent eruption of violence by groups who indirectly support Sunni politicians," he argued.
"I think that it was an understandable decision but we cannot say that someone won because the only time we can have this answer is after polls results are released."
By Afif Sarhan, IOL Correspondent
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