Starting Monday, December 7th, the attention of world will be glued to the Bella Center in Copenhagen, Denmark where the United Nations Climate Change summit will be taking place until December 18th. The expectations are both high and low.
The roadmap to Copenhagen has mostly been haggling over the reaching of a legally binding agreement on Green House Gas emissions reduction with set targets that becomes effective when the Kyoto Protocol ends in 2012.
Denmark hosting the summit has been rooting for a politically binding agreement instead of legally binding protocol and wants a plan to delay any deal to mid-2010.
Some of the western countries have been reluctant for an agreement that will compel them to meet certain targets on emissions reduction. Historically, the United States’ refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol is a case in point.
US president Barack Obama acknowledged on November 13th that a legally binding deal was impossible in Copenhagen. He has to first deal with a reluctant Senate to pass domestic laws to cut greenhouse gas emissions before he could agree to an international deal, a requirement that has stalled the talks.
Obama's comments were received as a serious blow to efforts aimed at getting a meaningful agreement by the close of business on December 18. "We do not need a politically binding agreement as it will give room to big GHG (Green House Gas) emitters like the US and Canada to get away with it," said Tove Marie Ryding of the Greenpeace.
Her argument is that the 2007 report of the Inter-Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by climate change scientists is clear that if the world does not act now and drastically reduce GHG emissions, there will be serious socio-economic and environmental disasters that include sea level rise, extreme climatic cycles like prolonged droughts and flooding, and an upsurge in disease burden, among many others.
According to Yves de Boer, executive secretary of the United Nations' Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Copenhagen agreement will include a set or package of forward-looking and "politically accountable" conclusions.
These will include a list of individual 2020 targets for industrialized countries, what major developing countries will do about growth paths and limiting emissions, what individual countries will commit to in terms of a start up funding, and a formula on how the cost of future adaptation and mitigation will be shared. Conference of Parties decisions should be made on capacity building, mitigation, adaptation, reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and a new institutional arrangement where necessary.
GHG Emissions Reduction
At this fifteenth edition of the Conferences of Parties the aim will be to get consensus and agreement on reducing GHGs which are said to be causing global warming. This will not just be the burden for the developed world but also what the developing countries need to do to mitigate the situation and to adapt to the adverse impact of climate change.
Scientists in 2007 said that developed countries, who are the major contributors to atmospheric pollution, must reduce their emissions by 20-40 percent compared to 1990 levels by 2020.
But some of them are now saying they underestimated the impact of the emissions back then and that glaciers are now melting at a much faster rate than predicted. They are now saying that reductions should move up to 40 percent.
"We listen to science and when scientists say that glaciers are melting at a very fast rate, that we are moving to a tipping point where major changes may occur, we realize the urgency of getting a legally binding agreement out of the Copenhagen summit with clearly set targets," said Ryding.
She said that scientists are also saying that by the end of this century, if it remains business as usual, there could be sea level rise of 2 meters wiping out many small island states.
Climate change scientists and some western political establishments are also arguing that developing countries like China, who are fast industrializing and are getting ranked among the highest polluters in the world, must reduce their emissions.
"The developing world can emit but not increase, and [should] move towards a greener development direction," Ryding concurred in Copenhagen.
Extending Kyoto
A new legally binding deal, some led by the UN and the US are arguing, cannot be reached in Copenhagen. They say that there is need for more time to hammer an appropriate agreement if it is going to be legally binding. But others are arguing that such a move would be suicidal. They are rooting for a second commitment on the Kyoto protocol to be pledged in Copenhagen saying, save for its weak compliance mechanisms, it is the only legal global climate change agreement that has a set of rules to be relied upon.
"What we need is a complete legally binding agreement and ambitious targets for emissions reduction and finances for adaptation," Paul Erik Lauridsen of CARE Denmark said. He said the developed countries must accept to reduce their emissions but the developing world must also have their targets.
The African position through the Africa Ministerial Council on Environment is that the Kyoto protocol must not be replaced but strengthened. Much haggling is expected on this at the negotiations.
Adaptation Needs
Another issue expected to dominate the proceedings is the financing of adaptation by the developed North to the global South being pushed by the developing word who have contributed very little to global warming yet are the most vulnerable and worst hit by its impacts.
They argue that the purpose of adaptation financing and availing of appropriate technology to the developing nations by the developed world is not to lift them out poverty but protect the poor against effects of climate change caused by the industrialized countries as they developed over the years.
Greenpeac's Ryding said its estimated that adaptation will cost about US$ 150 billion annually but the developing world is demanding an agreement out of Copenhagen for about US$ 200 billion annually. Developing countries China and India are more for technological transfers from the West of green development to adapt rather than financial assistance.
No single developed country has committed to long term financing assistance for adaptation but the developing world's position is that the developed world should pay up for global warming since they made their wealth out of industrial pollution.
Twenty percent of global emissions are due to the destruction of tropical forests and their protection is being considered one of the major solutions to tackling climate change. But clearing forests for agriculture and selling trees for furniture form the economic basis for several developing countries, and ending the practice too quickly would lead to serious socio-economic disasters.
This issue is expected to also feature prominently at the conference, especially regarding who should benefit from the money coming out of forest protection: will it be the central governments or the indigenous people who have been living in the forests for centuries?
A massive attendance estimated at about 15,000 delegates including President Obama will be attending the summit. Already 20,000 NGOs have registered while registration for journalists had reached 5,000 by last week before being stopped. Over one hundred presidents and a large number of relevant ministries had confirmed attendance by last week.
By - Ochieng' Ogodo is a Nairobi journalist whose works have been published in various parts of the world including Africa, the US and Europe. He is the English-speaking Africa and Middle East region winner for the 2008 Reuters-IUCN Media Awards for Excellence in Environmental Reporting. He is the chairman of Kenya Environment and Science Journalists Association (Kensja). His biography will be published in the 2009 Edition of the Marque's Who's Who in the World.
The roadmap to Copenhagen has mostly been haggling over the reaching of a legally binding agreement on Green House Gas emissions reduction with set targets that becomes effective when the Kyoto Protocol ends in 2012.
Denmark hosting the summit has been rooting for a politically binding agreement instead of legally binding protocol and wants a plan to delay any deal to mid-2010.
Some of the western countries have been reluctant for an agreement that will compel them to meet certain targets on emissions reduction. Historically, the United States’ refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol is a case in point.
US president Barack Obama acknowledged on November 13th that a legally binding deal was impossible in Copenhagen. He has to first deal with a reluctant Senate to pass domestic laws to cut greenhouse gas emissions before he could agree to an international deal, a requirement that has stalled the talks.
Obama's comments were received as a serious blow to efforts aimed at getting a meaningful agreement by the close of business on December 18. "We do not need a politically binding agreement as it will give room to big GHG (Green House Gas) emitters like the US and Canada to get away with it," said Tove Marie Ryding of the Greenpeace.
Her argument is that the 2007 report of the Inter-Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by climate change scientists is clear that if the world does not act now and drastically reduce GHG emissions, there will be serious socio-economic and environmental disasters that include sea level rise, extreme climatic cycles like prolonged droughts and flooding, and an upsurge in disease burden, among many others.
According to Yves de Boer, executive secretary of the United Nations' Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Copenhagen agreement will include a set or package of forward-looking and "politically accountable" conclusions.
These will include a list of individual 2020 targets for industrialized countries, what major developing countries will do about growth paths and limiting emissions, what individual countries will commit to in terms of a start up funding, and a formula on how the cost of future adaptation and mitigation will be shared. Conference of Parties decisions should be made on capacity building, mitigation, adaptation, reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and a new institutional arrangement where necessary.
GHG Emissions Reduction
At this fifteenth edition of the Conferences of Parties the aim will be to get consensus and agreement on reducing GHGs which are said to be causing global warming. This will not just be the burden for the developed world but also what the developing countries need to do to mitigate the situation and to adapt to the adverse impact of climate change.
Scientists in 2007 said that developed countries, who are the major contributors to atmospheric pollution, must reduce their emissions by 20-40 percent compared to 1990 levels by 2020.
But some of them are now saying they underestimated the impact of the emissions back then and that glaciers are now melting at a much faster rate than predicted. They are now saying that reductions should move up to 40 percent.
"We listen to science and when scientists say that glaciers are melting at a very fast rate, that we are moving to a tipping point where major changes may occur, we realize the urgency of getting a legally binding agreement out of the Copenhagen summit with clearly set targets," said Ryding.
She said that scientists are also saying that by the end of this century, if it remains business as usual, there could be sea level rise of 2 meters wiping out many small island states.
Climate change scientists and some western political establishments are also arguing that developing countries like China, who are fast industrializing and are getting ranked among the highest polluters in the world, must reduce their emissions.
"The developing world can emit but not increase, and [should] move towards a greener development direction," Ryding concurred in Copenhagen.
Extending Kyoto
A new legally binding deal, some led by the UN and the US are arguing, cannot be reached in Copenhagen. They say that there is need for more time to hammer an appropriate agreement if it is going to be legally binding. But others are arguing that such a move would be suicidal. They are rooting for a second commitment on the Kyoto protocol to be pledged in Copenhagen saying, save for its weak compliance mechanisms, it is the only legal global climate change agreement that has a set of rules to be relied upon.
"What we need is a complete legally binding agreement and ambitious targets for emissions reduction and finances for adaptation," Paul Erik Lauridsen of CARE Denmark said. He said the developed countries must accept to reduce their emissions but the developing world must also have their targets.
The African position through the Africa Ministerial Council on Environment is that the Kyoto protocol must not be replaced but strengthened. Much haggling is expected on this at the negotiations.
Adaptation Needs
Another issue expected to dominate the proceedings is the financing of adaptation by the developed North to the global South being pushed by the developing word who have contributed very little to global warming yet are the most vulnerable and worst hit by its impacts.
They argue that the purpose of adaptation financing and availing of appropriate technology to the developing nations by the developed world is not to lift them out poverty but protect the poor against effects of climate change caused by the industrialized countries as they developed over the years.
Greenpeac's Ryding said its estimated that adaptation will cost about US$ 150 billion annually but the developing world is demanding an agreement out of Copenhagen for about US$ 200 billion annually. Developing countries China and India are more for technological transfers from the West of green development to adapt rather than financial assistance.
No single developed country has committed to long term financing assistance for adaptation but the developing world's position is that the developed world should pay up for global warming since they made their wealth out of industrial pollution.
Twenty percent of global emissions are due to the destruction of tropical forests and their protection is being considered one of the major solutions to tackling climate change. But clearing forests for agriculture and selling trees for furniture form the economic basis for several developing countries, and ending the practice too quickly would lead to serious socio-economic disasters.
This issue is expected to also feature prominently at the conference, especially regarding who should benefit from the money coming out of forest protection: will it be the central governments or the indigenous people who have been living in the forests for centuries?
A massive attendance estimated at about 15,000 delegates including President Obama will be attending the summit. Already 20,000 NGOs have registered while registration for journalists had reached 5,000 by last week before being stopped. Over one hundred presidents and a large number of relevant ministries had confirmed attendance by last week.
By - Ochieng' Ogodo is a Nairobi journalist whose works have been published in various parts of the world including Africa, the US and Europe. He is the English-speaking Africa and Middle East region winner for the 2008 Reuters-IUCN Media Awards for Excellence in Environmental Reporting. He is the chairman of Kenya Environment and Science Journalists Association (Kensja). His biography will be published in the 2009 Edition of the Marque's Who's Who in the World.
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